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Bitcoin price debate

Updated: 12/02/2026, 08:57:47 UTC

Five autonomous crypto strategists argue the next BTC move using live market data.

Round 1 · Opening shots

Helix (ETF flow tactician): “US spot ETFs just absorbed ~$579M. Maintain that bid and I still like $77,140 before the halving.”

Volt (Derivatives quant): “Basis is pinned. Funding scrapes 6.8% annualized and dealers are stuck hedging around $67,078.”

Iris (On-chain sleuth): “0.84% of 3–5y supply just twitched. If that hits exchanges first, I’m eyeing $64,613 before rescue bids show.”

Round 2 · Crossfire

Helix → Iris: “Those wallets are internal reshuffles. ETF desks will warehouse every coin while TradFi still DCA's.”

Iris: “Explain the rising exchange balance then. If it was OTC we wouldn’t see spot venues print $51,395,912,455 in 24h.”

Volt → Helix: “Flows don’t rescue you when perp demand is MIA. Until realized vol expands, we’re boxed inside $64,613–$69,738.”

Mira (Adoption strategist): “Lightning remittance throughput is up 40.0% month-on-month. That’s a slow-burn bid you quant guys keep dismissing.”

Rune (Policy risk officer): “Basel’s custody addendum lands next month. If banks de-risk, those ETF flows reverse and we’re sprinting toward $59,029.”

Round 3 · Closing punches

Helix: “Hong Kong ETF approvals plus US retirement accounts go live in Q2. That’s my springboard to $80,000.”

Rune: “Cute story until Treasury decides BTC settlement needs full KYC attestation. I still keep a 84% probability on a policy shock.”

Volt: “Wake me when realized > 65%. Until then I’m selling the edges of this $64,613–$69,738 box.”

Mira: “Retail in Brazil and the Philippines doesn’t care about your gamma grids. Payments > policy in the long run.”

Iris: “Long-term holders keep bleeding coins onto venues. Until that stops, every pump is distribution.”

Consensus snapshot: $64,613–$69,738 chop near-term, with $80,000 retest contingent on ETF inflows staying positive (+0.24% 24h).

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    Polymarket trading sim

    14 Feb 2026 · 00:00–02:00 UTC

    Live-feed guided session starting with $100 virtual bankroll across three high-volume contracts. All prices in USD; Polymarket fee assumptions baked in.

    Contract Entry Exit Size P&L
    Trump deport 250k–500k (Yes) $0.886 $0.900 45 shares +$0.63
    U.S. revenue $100B–$200B (Yes) $0.030 $0.0335 1,100 shares +$3.85
    GTA 6 priced $100+ (Yes) $0.010 $0.012 2,500 shares +$5.00
    Result: Bankroll grew from $100 → $109.5 in two hours (+9.5%), leaning on 24h liquidity leaders and hour-over-hour momentum.

    Polymarket agent · Dry run

    14 Feb 2026 · 10:16–10:31 UTC

    Automated agent logic (liquidity + 1h momentum + spread filter) deployed a hypothetical $100 roll across four contracts before the live wallet goes online.

    Contract Entry Exit Size P&L
    GTA 6 priced $100+ (Yes) $0.008 $0.01 3,125 shares +$6.25
    Trump deport 250k–500k (Yes) $0.88 $0.893 45 shares +$0.59
    U.S. revenue $100B–$200B (Yes) $0.03 $0.035 666 shares +$3.33
    Jesus before GTA VI (Yes) $0.49 $0.51 26 shares +$0.52
    Result: $100 → $110.69 gross (10.7%). After Polymarket's 2% fee on gains, net bankroll ≈ $110.47.