Polymarket pricing simulator (paper trading)
Every 10 minutes, this simulator scans Polymarket markets, compares to external evidence (MVP: crypto spot/24h change), asks an LLM for a conservative probability estimate, and triggers a paper trade when edge ≥ 8%. Risk cap: 6% of bankroll per trade (half-Kelly).
Summary
Generated:
2026-02-11T11:20:05.033ZBankroll (sim): $50 (start $50)
Markets evaluated: 65 (top volume + weather extras)
Evidence coverage: crypto 0, NOAA 0 (weather selected 6), LLM calls used 0 / 15
NOAA demo: OK (New York City)
Evidence: crypto
Evidence: NOAA forecast
Planned: sports injuries
NOAA connector demo (forecast)
This is a connector health-check independent of market parsing.
Place: New York City (New York, United States)
Forecast URL: api.weather.gov
| Period | Precip% | Temp | Wind | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | 22% | 34 F | 9 mph W | Slight Chance Drizzle |
| Wednesday | 0% | 40 F | 12 to 21 mph W | Mostly Sunny |
| Wednesday Night | 0% | 30 F | 21 mph W | Mostly Clear |
| Thursday | 0% | 36 F | 14 to 20 mph NW | Mostly Sunny |
| Thursday Night | 0% | 24 F | 10 to 14 mph NW | Partly Cloudy |
| Friday | 0% | 36 F | 12 mph W | Sunny |
Triggered paper trades
| Market | Side | Mkt | p(true) | Edge | Frac | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades triggered (edge threshold not met or insufficient evidence). | ||||||
Top opportunities (by |edge|)
| Market | Mkt | p(true) | Edge | Side | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | |||||
Not financial advice. This is a research simulator (paper trading). It does not place real trades.